Washington's interest has a clear geopolitical dimension. China is already the main buyer The visit of U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Paul Kapur to Turkmenistan on November 3–4, 2026, was another indication of Washington's growing interest in Central Asia. The talks focused on energy, investment, regional security, transport routes, and expanding bilateral cooperation.
of Turkmen natural gas and one of the country's key investors in the energy sector. Russia, despite its diminished role in Turkmenistan's gas exports, continues to maintain political influence in the region.
For the United States, Turkmenistan is important as a potential participant in the development of alternative energy and transport routes, including the Trans-Caspian Corridor and the Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India (TAPI) gas pipeline.
What Strategy Are the Berdimuhamedovs Pursuing?
Ashgabat is interested in Chinese investment and gas revenues, maintaining relations with Russia, and expanding cooperation with the United States. This strategy allows the Turkmen authorities to obtain economic and diplomatic advantages while avoiding binding commitments to any single partner.
However, a fundamental question arises: Will Turkmenistan's leadership use these new international opportunities to improve citizens' lives, or primarily to consolidate its own power?
Human Rights Remain Marginal in the Public Outcomes.
Turkmenistan remains one of the most closed countries in the region. For many years, international human rights organizations have documented severe restrictions on freedom of expression, independent journalism, access to information, freedom of association, and freedom of movement.
Particular concerns include reports of persecution of government critics, politically motivated imprisonment, enforced disappearances in detention, restrictions on internet access, and the absence of effective mechanisms for public oversight.
Against this background, it is significant that human rights did not receive attention comparable to energy and investment in the publicly announced outcomes of Paul Kapur's visit. No specific agreements were publicly announced concerning the release of political prisoners, investigations into the fate of people who have disappeared in detention, or the expansion of civil liberties.
What Are the Risks?
The principal danger is that geopolitical competition could push human rights further down the agenda.
If the United States prioritizes natural gas, transit routes, and limiting Chinese and Russian influence, the Turkmen authorities could gain new investment, technology, and international legitimacy without undertaking political reforms.
In such circumstances, economic cooperation could strengthen state structures that continue to restrict citizens' fundamental rights and freedoms.
There is also a risk that additional financial revenues will remain opaque to the public and that ordinary citizens will not receive a proportionate share of the benefits from international agreements.
An increase in foreign investment should therefore not, in itself, be treated as evidence of improvements in human rights.
Turkmenistan may gain additional economic and diplomatic advantages from competition among the United States, China, and Russia. However, without clear human rights conditions, these advantages risk benefiting primarily the ruling elite. It is essential that international partners ensure cooperation with Ashgabat does not become unconditional political support for the authorities, but is accompanied by concrete demands for respect for human rights.
Recommendations of the Turkmen Helsinki Foundation for Human Rights.
THF recommends that Ashgabat's international partners use economic negotiations to raise the following specific human rights issues:
Ensure access for international monitors to prisons and other places of detention;
End the persecution of journalists and civil society activists;
Guarantee freedom of movement;
Remove unjustified restrictions on access to information. To achieve this, particular emphasis should be placed on expanding educational exchanges, international contacts, access to technology, and cooperation with foreign organizations;
Meaningful progress will only be possible if human rights become an independent and substantive component of bilateral relations rather than a secondary issue.
Ultimately, the question is not only who will gain access to Turkmenistan's natural gas, but whether Turkmen citizens themselves will gain greater freedom, stronger rights, and more opportunities to influence their country's future.
Turkmen Helsinki Foundation for Human Rights
